A low-pressure area is likely to form in the Arabian Sea by Tuesday night which may eventually lead to the first post-monsoon cyclone. However, it is too early to make any concrete forecast.
The News18 report also suggested that weather models are predicting that conditions are building up over the southeastern parts of the Arabian Sea of a cyclonic circulation.
Private weather agency Skymetweather said that the storm conditions are brewing over the southeastern parts of the Arabian Sea, next to the equatorial region, adding that “warm Indian Ocean on account of positive IOD and marginally favoured MJO, together may pop up a cyclonic disturbance shortly”.
The report published on October 13 also maintained, “It is rather pre-mature to commit anything, other than a cyclonic circulation over the Southeast Arabian Sea around 15th October. This may shift over extreme South-Central parts of the ocean in the subsequent 72 hours and may shape up as low pressure area. Very low latitude and unfavourable environmental conditions do not suggest any fast pick up.”
The report also maintains that as per very early predictions, under ideal conditions, this might be the possible low-pressure area that could soon escalate into a cyclone. The cyclone, if at all it forms, will be named ‘Tej’.